American and Qatari gas is considerably cheaper than Russian, which was both overpriced for political reasons and “pipeline maintenance” was started any time a decision not in the Russian interests was taken.From a Gazprom perspective, competition in the short term will be with LNG from projects that arealready committed and where the project partners will be prepared to sell their output down to short runmarginal cost if absolutely necessary. On this basis, Russian pipeline gas and US LNG, as a proxy forsurplus LNG arriving in Europe, are competitive at just over $4/MMBtu. However, once any surplus iscleared, new projects will be needed, and project developers will want to know that these can providea return on a full, long run marginal, cost basis before committing to a Final Investment Decision (FID).However, as can again be seen from Figure 9, the full long run marginal cost of US LNG at a HenryHub price of $2.60/MMBtu is over $7/MMBtu, and many commentators would argue that a more realisticassumption for new LNG projects overall would be a range of $7 10/MMBtu.
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